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About the Authors
Steven Byers, Ph.D. is the Senior Economist with Common Sense Institute. Steven’s experience as an economist spans twenty-three years, including work at federal regulatory agencies (SEC, CFTC, PCAOB) and quantitative economic analysis supporting international trade litigation cases brought before the U.S. International Trade Commission.
2023 Owens – Early Criminal Justice Fellows
George Brauchler served as the elected District Attorney for the 18th Judicial District, Colorado’s most populous district, which includes Arapahoe, Douglas, Elbert, and Lincoln counties, from 2013-2021. As a state prosecutor, he handled the felony cases from the Columbine High School mass shooting case, the Aurora Theater (Batman) mass shooting case, and more recently, the STEM Academy school mass shooting case.
Mitch Morrissey served as the elected District Attorney for the 2nd Judicial District covering Denver, Colorado from 2005-2017. Mitch is internationally recognized for his expertise in DNA technology and applying that technology to solve crimes. He has trained law enforcement officers and prosecutors throughout the United States, the Middle East, Central America, and Canada. He currently runs a company that solves Cold Cases with DNA and Investigative Genetic Genealogy
2023 Local Elections
In 2023, Coloradans will have municipal elections in our most populated cities. To inform these debates CSI will produce reports on the most pressing issues facing Colorado cities: crime, housing, and homelessness for Fort Collins, Denver, Grand Junction, Pueblo, and Aurora.
About Common Sense Institute
Common Sense Institute is a non-partisan research organization dedicated to the protection and promotion of Colorado’s and Arizona’s economies. CSI is at the forefront of important discussions concerning the future of free enterprise in Colorado and aims to have an impact on the issues that matter most to Coloradans and Arizonans. CSI’s mission is to examine the fiscal impacts of policies, initiatives, and proposed laws so that Coloradans and Arizonans are educated and informed on issues impacting their lives. CSI employs rigorous research techniques and dynamic modeling to evaluate the potential impact of these measures on the Colorado and Arizona economies and individual opportunity.
Teams & Fellows Statement
CSI is committed to independent, in-depth research that examines the impacts of policies, initiatives, and proposed laws so that Coloradans and Arizonans are educated and informed on issues impacting their lives. CSI’s commitment to institutional independence is rooted in the individual independence of our researchers, economists, and fellows. At the core of CSI’s mission is a belief in the power of the free enterprise system. Our work explores ideas that protect and promote jobs and the economy, and the CSI team and fellows take part in this pursuit with academic freedom. Our team’s work is informed by data-driven research and evidence. The views and opinions of fellows do not reflect the institutional views of CSI. CSI operates independently of any political party and does not take positions.
Introduction and Key Findings
Since 2019, crime in Colorado has skyrocketed to become a major issue for policymakers across the state. Ahead of local municipal elections, CSI is highlighting important issues, including crime, that voters care about at the local level. This report analyzes the current state of Grand Junction through the lens of crime and crime rates. Common Sense Institute (CSI) focused data from Colorado Crime Statistics and focused on statistics reported by the Grand Junction Police Department.[i]
One of the goals of the Common Sense Institute is to offset fear with facts.Media reports and anecdotal observations might not present the full picture.Data of actual crime events, especially when compared to the experiences of other jurisdictions and the entire state, can clarify the reality of a given community. Statewide crime statistics combine both urban and rural areas, and, because they are overarching, will often be lower than those of individual cities.The news about Grand Junction shows a more optimistic picture than other cities as the crime rate has been declining.This trend can be impacted by policymakers and other leaders who study the data collected and analyzed by Common Sense Institute.
The number of incidents of crime in Grand Junction, represented by the blue line in Figure 1, has averaged 5,250 since 2010 and fluctuated between 4,800 and 5,680 between 2010 and 2022. The volatility in total crime incidents was largely driven by changes in property crimes, including burglary, credit card fraud, vandalism, and theft from motor vehicles. The change in the annual number of incidents of crime in Grand Junction contrasts with a steady increase in crime at the state level as shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1 – Number of Crime Incidents in Grand Junction and Colorado
Report Key Findings
- Grand Junction’s total crime rate in 2022 remains higher than Colorado’s but has been falling on average since 2010. Grand Junction’s 2022 total crime rate was 3.57% lower than in 2010, whereas Colorado’s has increased by 30.1% over the same period.
- The decline in Grand Junction’s total crime rate was primarily driven by a drop in property crimes. Since 2016, when the total crime rate peaked, property crimes have declined by 27.9% while crimes against a person have increased by 19.8%.
- Crime in Mesa County is primarily driven by crime in Grand Junction, but other cities and jurisdictions (like Fruita and Palisade) are experiencing crime as well.
- Black residents are disproportionately victims of crime in Grand Junction. Although comprising 1.1% of the population, they total 2.84% of the victims.
- Arrests by the Grand Junction Police Department has declined by 14.8% since 2010 despite incidents of crime being flat over the same period.
Crime Rates in Grand Junction
The data in this section come from Colorado Crime Statistics. Figure 2 shows the evolution of the average monthly crime rates in Grand Junction and Colorado since 2010. The average monthly crime rate in Grand Junction has fallen by 3.57% from 7.94 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 7.66 in 2022. As of 2022, Grand Junction’s crime rate is 37.5% higher than Colorado’s. In 2010, Grand Junction’s crime rate was 85% higher. The convergence of Grand Junction’s and Colorado’s crime rates is due to both increased crime rates throughout the state and the decrease in the crime rate in Grand Junction.
Figure 2 – Average Monthly Crime Rate per 1,000 Residents in Grand Junction and Colorado
Figure 3 shows the average monthly rates of crime against persons per 1,000 residents in Grand Junction and Colorado. From 2010 to 2022, Grand Junction’s rate of crime against persons rose by 67% from 0.99 to 1.65 while Colorado’s rose by 49% from 0.69 to 1.02.
Figure 3 – Average Monthly Rates of Crime against Persons per 1,000 Residents in Grand Junction and Colorado
Figure 4 shows the average monthly rate of crime against property per 1,000 residents in Grand Junction and Colorado. From 2010 to 2022, Grand Junction’s rate fell by 19.4% from 5.66 to 4.55 while Colorado’s rose by 30% from 3.1 to 4.02.
Figure 4 – Average Monthly Rates of Crime against Property per 1,000 Residents in Grand Junction and Colorado
Figure 5 shows the average monthly rate of crime against society per 1,000 residents in Grand Junction and Colorado. From 2010 to 2022, Grand Junction’s rate increased by 12.3% from 1.29 to 1.45 while Colorado’s rose by 7.0% from 0.49 to 0.53.
Figure 5 – Average Monthly Rates of Crime against Society per 1,000 Residents in Grand Junction and Colorado
Crimes against society include all crimes that are not crimes against persons or property. These include drug and narcotic violations, illegal betting and wagering, illegal gambling operations, illegal p*rnography, prostitution, and weapons violations.
Table 1 shows average monthly crime rates by major crime category in 2014, 2018, and 2022, as well as their changes from 2014 to 2018 and from 2018 to 2022. The total crime rate in Grand Junction increased by 6.8% from 2014 to 2018 and decreased by 10.3% from 2018 to 2022. Crime against persons rose by 21.6% from 2018 to 2022, double the increase between 2014 and 2018 (10.0%). Crime against property declined by 19.4% from 2018 to 2022. Crime against society decreased by 5.2% from 2018 to 2022 after increasing by 13.1% from 2014 to 2018.
Some of the larger increases occurred in robbery, which increased by 66.9% from 2018 to 2022 after a 53.5% decline between 2014 and 2018, intimidation, which rose by 80.9% from 2018 to 2022 after a 11.3% increase between 2014 and 2018, aggravated assault, which increased by 28.8% from 2018 to 2022 following a 6.1% increase between 2014 and 2018, and auto theft, which increased by 13.8% from 2018 to 2022 concurrent with a statewide increase. A more comprehensive version of Table 1 showing all categories of crime is provided in Table A1 in the appendix.
| Table 1 – Grand Junction Average Monthly Crime Rate per 1,000 Residents | |||||
| Crime Rate | Percent Change | ||||
| Average Monthly Crime Rate | 2014 | 2018 | 2022 | 2014-2018 | 2018-2022 |
| Total Crime Rate Colorado | 4.55 | 5.09 | 5.57 | 11.8% | 9.5% |
| Total Crime Rate Grand Junction | 7.99 | 8.54 | 7.66 | 6.8% | -10.3% |
| Crimes against Person | 1.24 | 1.36 | 1.65 | 10.0% | 21.6% |
| Crimes against Property | 5.41 | 5.65 | 4.55 | 4.5% | -19.4% |
| Crimes against Society | 1.35 | 1.53 | 1.45 | 13.1% | -5.2% |
| Sexual Assault | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 2.9% | -14.5% |
| Murder | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.0% | 50% |
| Robbery | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.04 | -53.5% | 66.9% |
| Aggravated Assault | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.34 | 6.1% | 28.8% |
| Weapons Law Violation | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.03 | -13.5% | 20.6% |
| Burglary | 0.37 | 0.4 | 0.37 | 7.3% | -8.3% |
| Theft from Motor Vehicles | 0.46 | 0.73 | 0.45 | 59.5% | -38.1% |
| Intimidation | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.21 | 111.3% | 80.9% |
| Auto Theft | 0.14 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 59.0% | 13.8% |
| Source: Colorado Crime Statistics | |||||
Crime in Grand Junction Relative to Other Mesa County Jurisdictions
Figure 6 shows the average monthly crime rates per 1,000 residents in Grand Junction and other Mesa County jurisdictions. From 2014 to 2018, Grand Junction experienced the smallest crime rate increase (6.8%), the crime rate in Fruita increased 70.9%, and Palisade experienced the largest increase in the crime rate (81.2%). Mesa County’s overall crime rate increased by 33.5%. From 2014 to 2018.
From 2018 to 2022, crime rates went down in all jurisdictions in Mesa County. The crime rate in Grand Junction decreased 10.3%, in Fruita it fell 56%, Palisade experienced a 77.8% decline, and in unincorporated Mesa County it fell 6.1%
In 2022, Grand Junction had the highest crime rate—53% higher than that of Mesa County, 3 times higher than in Fruita, and 6 times higher than Palisade’s. Mesa County experienced an average monthly crime rate increase of 6.2% between 2012 and 2022.
Figure 6 – Average Monthly Crime Rates per 1,000 Residents – Grand Junction and Other Mesa County Jurisdictions and Mesa County as a Whole
| Table 2 – Average Monthly Crime Rates per 1,000 Residents | ||||||
| City/Jurisdiction | 2014 | 2018 | 2022 | *Change 2012-2022 | Change 2014-2018 | Change 2018-2022 |
| Grand Junction | 7.99 | 8.54 | 7.66 | -13.5% | 6.8% | -10.3% |
| Mesa County | 5.01 | 6.69 | 5.00 | 6.2% | 33.5% | -25.3% |
| Fruita | 2.58 | 4.41 | 1.94 | -45.7% | 70.9% | -56.0% |
| Palisade | 2.66 | 4.82 | 1.07 | -75.6% | 81.2% | -77.8% |
| Mesa County Sheriff | 3.15 | 3.95 | 3.71 | 10.7% | 25.4% | -6.1% |
| *Note – 2012 to 2022 comparison was chosen because 2012 is the first year from which data are available for all cities and jurisdictions Source: Colorado Crime Stats | ||||||
Arrests in Grand Junction
Figure 7 shows the number of arrests and the number of incidents of crime in Grand Junction. Over a period when the number of incidents of crime had been basically flat since 2010, the number of arrests by the Grand Junction Police Department fell by 14.8% from 4,822 to 4,107. After rising from 2010 through 2017, arrests dropped by 29.8% from 2017 to 2020. Following 2020, the number of arrests has increased by 13%.
Figure 7 – Number of Arrests vs. Total Incidents of Crime – Grand Junction
Who Are the Victims of Crime in Grand Junction?
As shown in Figure 8, Black people in Grand Junction are the victims of crime at a much higher rate relative to their share of the population. White people constitute 80.8% of the population and are victims of 96.1% of crimes, a ratio of 1.19 share of crime victims to share of total population. Black people constitute 1.1% of the population but are victims of 2.8% of crimes, a ratio of 2.55 share of crime victims to share of total population, 2.14 times higher than for whites.
Figure 8 – Crime Victims as a Percent of Population by Race
Conclusion
The information in this report is intended to help voters and elected officials better understand the key areas of concern, so as to better focus policy and resource discussions. The crime rate in Grand Junction is higher than in Colorado. However, in contrast to Colorado, the crime rate in Grand Junction has declined slightly in the past 12 years, while Colorado’s has increased dramatically.
Appendix
| Table A1 – Crime Rates in Grand Junction | |||||
| Category of Crime | 2014 | 2018 | 2022 | Change 2014-2018 | Change 2018-2022 |
| Crimes against Person | 1.24 | 1.36 | 1.65 | 10.0% | 21.6% |
| Murder and Nonnegligent Manslaughter | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Negligent Manslaughter | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.0% | ||
| Justifiable Homicide | |||||
| Kidnapping/Abduction | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 4.7% | -20.0% |
| Rape | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.06 | -20.0% | -8.3% |
| Sodomy | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.02 | -34.5% | -16.7% |
| Sexual Assault with an Object | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.0% | 80.0% |
| Fondling | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 32.4% | -24.6% |
| Incest | 0.02 | ||||
| Statutory Rape | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.0% | -14.3% |
| Aggravated Assault | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.34 | 6.1% | 28.8% |
| Simple Assault | 0.72 | 0.75 | 0.92 | 4.3% | 22.0% |
| Intimidation | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.21 | 111.3% | 80.9% |
| Human Trafficking, Commercial Sex Acts | 0.03 | ||||
| Human Trafficking, Involuntary Servitude | |||||
| Crimes against Property | 5.41 | 5.65 | 4.55 | 4.5% | -19.4% |
| Arson | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 10.0% | -18.9% |
| Bribery | 0.02 | ||||
| Burglary/Breaking & Entering | 0.37 | 0.40 | 0.37 | 7.3% | -8.3% |
| Counterfeiting/Forgery | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 26.2% | -33.8% |
| Destruction/Damage/Vandalism of Property | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.17 | 1.6% | -4.2% |
| Embezzlement | 0.02 | ||||
| Extortion/Blackmail | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 10.0% | 36.4% |
| False Pretenses/Swindle/Confidence Game | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.08 | -4.3% | 37.2% |
| Credit Card/Automated Teller Machine Fraud | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 60.8% | -60.6% |
| Impersonation | 0.27 | 0.30 | 0.19 | 11.5% | -34.9% |
| Welfare Fraud | |||||
| Wire Fraud | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Identity Theft | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.0% | ||
| Hacking/Computer Invasion | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.0% | ||
| Robbery | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.04 | -53.5% | 66.9% |
| Pocket-picking | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | -14.3% | 0.0% |
| Purse-snatching | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Shoplifting | 1.01 | 0.87 | 0.51 | -13.6% | -41.8% |
| Theft from Building | 0.40 | 0.29 | 0.39 | -26.2% | 34.6% |
| Theft from Coin Operated Machine or Device | 0.02 | 0.03 | 50.0% | ||
| Theft from Motor Vehicle | 0.46 | 0.73 | 0.45 | 59.5% | -38.1% |
| Theft of Motor Vehicle Parts/Accessories | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.15 | -33.6% | 26.8% |
| All Other Larceny | 1.00 | 1.04 | 0.71 | 4.2% | -32.2% |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 0.14 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 59.0% | 13.8% |
| Stolen Property Offenses | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 106.7% | -22.3% |
| Crimes against Society | 1.35 | 1.53 | 1.45 | 13.1% | -5.2% |
| Drug/Narcotic Violations | 0.65 | 0.82 | 0.66 | 25.7% | -19.6% |
| Drug Equipment Violations | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.63 | 8.4% | 10.6% |
| Betting/Wagering | 0.02 | ||||
| Operating/Promoting/Assisting Gambling | 0.02 | ||||
| Gambling Equipment Violations | 0.02 | ||||
| Sports Tampering | |||||
| p*rnography/Obscene Material | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Prostitution | 0.03 | 0.02 | -41.2% | ||
| Assisting or Promoting Prostitution | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Purchasing Prostitution | |||||
| Weapon Law Violations | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.14 | -13.5% | 20.6% |
| Animal Cruelty | 0.02 | 0.04 | 100.0% | ||
| Violent Crime | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.51 | -2.6% | 16.4% |
| Murder | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Aggravated Assault | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.34 | 6.1% | 28.8% |
| Non-consensual Sex Offenses | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 2.9% | -14.5% |
| Robbery | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.04 | -53.5% | 66.9% |
| Total | 7.99 | 8.54 | 7.66 | 6.8% | -10.3% |
